Economics, Politics

What to expect in 2016!

When I was a child and studying in primary school, the world population was estimated at 6 billion people.  That was 25 years ago. As we approach 2016, the estimated world population stands at 7.3 billion people.

What can 7.3 billion people expect in 2016?

Happy New Year 2016 replace 2015 concept on the sea beach

To start with, 2015 was not an easy year for the world. Conflicts in the Middle East have triggered the largest dislocation of people since World War II and we have witnessed major disagreements in the developed world regarding sensitive and humane issues.

We have seen the first interest rate hike from FED in the last eight years during the last days of 2015 and we experienced major government changes in Myanmar and South American countries including Argentina and Venezuela.

In 2016, we will witness the US presidential election taking place on 8 November 2016. The Obama administration will come to an end in 2016 and I hope a good leader will continue his legacy for the coming years. This will be the biggest major event in 2016 since the US can change the course of events substantially if there is a major policy shift. My own bet is on the Democrats continuing to run the presidency in the US.

According to The Economist, one percent of the world’s population will enjoy more wealth than 99% of the population for the first time in 2016. This worries me a lot since both World Wars began with disagreements regarding the division of resources. We have to solve this problem as soon as possible, otherwise we will all be dragged into this problem at some point and human history may talk about a third world war in the 21st century. I think the probability of a large scale war in the next 10-20 years is very high unless we do something fast.

Europe is expecting another 1.5 million refugees in 2016. The 1 million barrier has already been crossed in 2015 and more will follow in 2016. I believe developed countries in Western Europe cannot really manage this crisis properly and this is another big challenge we face.

The Olympics, Rio 2016, are just around the corner and the European Championship held in France will be another major event in 2016. I wish Turkey and England the best of luck in these tournaments.

We should prepare for another hectic year in the financial markets as well. A rate hike will very likely continue in the US and we will experience the effects of this new “normal” on the emerging markets. Europe will likely get better in 2016, but nothing really fantastic is expected from the European side.

The Chinese slowdown will continue to be the main theme in 2016 and I personally see no real upside on the commodity prices. This will very likely stretch to Middle Eastern countries and taxation policies could be on the way for many zero tax countries in 2016.

I am quite optimistic about Latin America as they have already started dealing with their problems quickly and major government shifts will very likely improve these economies since they have hit the bottom. The only exception could be Venezuela.  A moratorium from Venezuela would not be a surprise for me in 2016.

India is very likely to do well in 2016 just like 2015! Turkey is not an easy bet. Of course since I am originally from Turkey, I want Turkey to do well but the political situation in the nearby countries such as Iraq and Syria will make 2016 difficult for Turkey. In addition, the outflow from the emerging markets will be another challenge. I believe long term investment in Turkey will still have higher yield than many markets.

It will be interesting to watch the EU referendum in the UK – I hope the UK chooses to stay in the EU.

New technological “disruptions” in the Fintech and Virtual Reality spaces will be themes to watch in order to not be left behind.

On a personal note, I hope to witness my child’s one year birthday. Improving and expanding my knowledge and experience will be my main focus this year as well. I want to continue to develop my French language skills along with expanding my personal and business network.

I hope that I can visit five new countries in 2016. My agenda is New Zealand, South Korea, China, Georgia and Brunei. I hope I can achieve this!

Taking this opportunity, I wish you a merry Christmas and a happy new year!

Thank you for your reading my blog in 2015.

All the best from Singapore.

Sukru Haskan
Twitter: @sukru_haskan

Life, Singapore

A Birth Story, Henry Alp Haskan

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What a week for my family and me!

My first kid, Henry Alp, arrived this week on 14 December at 17:08. We were quite worried since the baby was over 4 kg and he wasn’t engaged so there was no way to deliver him naturally and we were heading to the hospital like we going on a regular family holiday with the luggage and passports.

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I would call the period from arriving at the hospital to the surgery starting the most stressful time of the whole process.

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You just wait in your room like you are waiting for some kind of funeral (even though it is a birth!) and when the time arrives, you feel like it may be a good idea to delay the birth! Maybe the baby would engage soon! 🙂

And then, while my wife was in the operating theatre, the waiting exercise was not completed for me. I had been given a chair and a corner to wait and I had been told that they would call me.

At this point, I remember my primary school period where the teachers are the real masters and you have to obey whatever they say! I was really desperate!

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The minutes passed very slowly and I was called into the operating theatre. I am not a good person to be in an operating theatre since I feel like I might faint whenever I see somebody else’s blood but I was there!

I stayed in the surgery room for 15 minutes, but I can tell you that it felt like an hour. I tried my best not to look anywhere except my wife’s face. Even when Henry Alp born, the doctor was showing us the kid and I was hesitant about looking at him since I was not sure if I would see anything wrong!

Our paediatrician checked if the baby was healthy and then I carefully followed a bunch of nurses with my kid.

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I was out with the kid, but my wife was inside and the stress had not really gone anywhere! After an hour, she arrived and I was so relieved that I went straight to a nice bar next to the hospital to have some pints of beer to relax.

The first night was really sleepless! I really enjoyed it as my favourite football team, Besiktas, was playing against a rival club, Galatasaray. Defeating Galatasaray was a good coincidence since we haven’t been able to defeat them since 2011.

The second day was good fun since the stress replaces itself with joy. Being a dad is like being on a big learning S curve since I learned how to change my baby’s nappy and wip him clean.

Getting his birth certificate was another memorable experience on that day!

A glass of beer was still needed, but this time to celebrate that night.

On the third day I learned how to bathe him and that was an experience as well. Henry Alp managed to pee on myself. (Congratulations, my boy!)

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And, finally, we were discharged from the hospital day 4.

I have huge respect for women, and I respect all the mothers even more. It is not easy what a mother goes through and they all need to be congratulated for this.

I would like to thank all the North Bridge Road Raffles Hospital staff who helped us during this journey. Taking this opportunity, I especially would like to thank Dr. Lee I Wuen.

We have been seeing her for last 9 months and she has been fantastic from the start.

Finally, I should say this has been another great Singapore experience. From A to Z, everything was very well planned and executed. I am not sure if it would be the case in many other countries.

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Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

All the best from Singapore.

Sukru Haskan
Twitter: @sukru_haskan

Economics

Is Declining Oil Price a good thing?

Absolutely, the declining oil price is a good thing!

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Not only oil, but a price plunge in all types of commodity is good in the long term…

In the short term, it may look dreadful. There may be difficulties in terms of keeping up with the debt repayments of oil rich countries and companies, expanding current account deficits and even bankruptcies.

All of this could be very painful—so why then is it a good thing?

Earning money from commodities is not like a having a proper manufacturing or service sector which you make money out of. A commodity is a natural resource and it is abundant there just out of pure luck.

In other words, there is no real hard work behind it.

Editorial Cartoon by Graeme MacKay, The Hamilton Spectator - Wednesday December 3, 2014 Ontario benefits as oil prices plunge The steep drop in crude prices that continued Friday hurts oil-rich provinces like Alberta and Newfoundland, but Ontario comes out a winner thanks to increased demand for auto production and overall exports. ÒFor us, itÕs very good news, even if itÕs not so much for the rest of the country,Ó said Mike Moffatt, assistant professor at Western UniversityÕs Ivey School of Business. ÒWe are a net importer of oil. Obviously, we use oil in our day-to-day lives, but itÕs a big input for our manufacturers as well,Ó he said. ÒItÕs always a good thing when the stuff you buy becomes relatively cheaper,Ó Moffatt said. ÒAnd lower oil prices drive down the Canadian dollar, which helps our exporters.Ó According to the 2014 Ontario budget, every $10 drop in the price of a barrel of crude oil results in a 0.1 to 0.3 percentage point in economic growth for the provincial economy. ÒIf you put it in dollar figures, thatÕs between $1 billion and $2 billion for OntarioÕs economy,Ó Moffatt said. The impact is expected to be even greater here, given that the price of oil has plunged since OPEC decided Thursday to leave its production targets of 30 million barrels a day unchanged despite an oversupply and falling prices. Western Canada Select, the Canadian benchmark, has lost more than a third of its value since June, in step with declines for West Texas Intermediate and the international gauge Brent. WCS spot prices traded Friday at $48.40 a barrel, the lowest in the world. (Source: Toronto Star) http://www.thestar.com/business/2014/11/28/ontario_benefits_as_oil_prices_plunge.html Ontario, Alberta, Canada, Oil, Stephen Harper, Kathleen Wynne, manufacturing, economy

In order to set up a manufacturing company, you need a lot of things to be in place and, most importantly, it needs hard work. The same goes for the service sector. For instance, let’s take the example of the financial sector.

This requires a wealth of knowledge that people acquire not just through education, but also through valuable experience.

Can you imagine how many years it took to build the New York or London financial centres to where they are now?

Just remember the wealth of experience and intellectual capacity that these financial centres are sitting on—like JP Morgan, the Rothschild family, the Warburg family, the Rockefellers, and many more…

When something is given and you know how to extract the natural resource, you are like a third generation rich kid whose parents had a lot of real estate which you inherited. You continue to receive the rent payments from your tenants, but how many of you will really think about how to improve or develop new skills?

There are always outliers who can take things further, but mainly it is fair to say that this is not the case.

Then, what happens most of the time to third generation companies/wealth?

Nearly 60% of the time, a family’s money is exhausted by the children of the person who created the wealth, according to Roy Williams, president of wealth consultancy The Williams Group. In 90% of cases, it’s gone by the time the grandchildren die.

Source: http://money.cnn.com/2014/06/25/luxury/family-wealth/

A commodity price plunge will push countries and companies to reform themselves. More importantly, countries will need to adapt to the current environment to survive, and companies will try to be more innovative to survive.

The oil price decline will mean more reform, more innovation, more democracy and a better future!

Last but not least, there is a very nice article on Chatham House regarding commodity rich countries. The article talks about the resource curse. You can look at:

https://www.chathamhouse.org/publication/resource-curse-revisited

p.s: This week will be a very important week for me and for my family. I will be a father for the first time! Wish me good luck!

All the best from Singapore.

Sukru Haskan
Twitter: @sukru_haskan

Economics, Life, Personal Development, Singapore

Social Mobility

 

If you are born in the Western world rather than Africa today, it is likely that you will not suffer famine in your lifetime. If you are born in England, your life expectancy will be higher than someone born in Mali. If you are born into a family where both your parents have university degrees, it is very likely that you will have access to higher education as well.

Small differences in life such as your place of birth, nationality, your name and your family make huge differences to how your life is lived.

It is very clear that not everybody is born with the same kind of opportunities and prospects. It is the balance of nature—and it is not very fair.

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Social mobility is a big challenge for every country today. A book written by Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett concludes that more equal societies almost always do better than others. Their study discovers that there is an inverse relationship between income inequality and intergenerational mobility. Countries with less income inequality, such as Denmark, Sweden and Finland, have some of the greatest mobility, whereas countries with high income inequality, such as Chile and Brazil, have some of the lowest social mobility.

So much talent is wasted because they haven’t been given enough opportunity to show what they can achieve.

For example, George Soros would have been one of the wasted talents, but he was lucky enough to receive an education at LSE.

He subsequently tried his luck in securing employment in England, but was offered only simple jobs rather than his dream investment banking job. Because he did not come from a certain family or circle, he could not establish his dream in England, and so flew to the US to accomplish his dreams.

Today he is one of the greatest philanthropists.

Given that we cannot completely eliminate these inequalities, how can we help the underprivileged to move up the ladder?

No matter what, we have to subsidise education. Children who come from poor families have to make it to good schools if they have the right attitude and skills. Without allowing underprivileged kids access to education, it is almost impossible to speak about social mobility.

I think Singapore is a very good example. Everyone can go to a public school and the monthly fee varies from free to six Singapore dollars if you are a Singaporean citizen. More importantly, Singapore is one of the best countries for your child to be educated, according to the latest PISA results.

There is no guarantee that all kids can make it—but the probability of climbing the ladder significantly increases with a good education.

The legendary investor, Jim Rogers, lives in Singapore with his family and he chose for his daughter to study at a public school rather than a private school.

Social mobility is not only something that helps people climb the ladder, but it is also an insurance against rises in crime and is a bodyguard for a peaceful world.

It is not easy to subsidise a good level of education for everyone and it is very costly, but it is not more costly than the cost of rising crime, of unhappy communities and of pessimistic futures.

Finally, no matter how smart you are, if you are financially well off, it is very likely that you will take it easy. Social mobility is also good for innovation, competition and the promotion of growth.

Hamdi Ulukaya, owner of Chobani yoghurts, is a recent good example of social mobility. A Turkish citizen of Kurdish descent, he was lucky enough to study at Ankara University and lucky enough to go to the US for his English studies. He took a major risk in acquiring a large, defunct yoghurt factory in New York.

Ulukaya’s net worth is USD 1.4 billion as of 2014 and he has pledged USD 700 million to refugees of the Syrian civil war.

It is hard to prove, but I believe people whom you help to move up social ladder tend to help other people as well—just like George Soros and Hamdi Ulukaya.

All the best from Singapore.

Sukru Haskan
Twitter: @sukru_haskan

Asia, Travel

Trip Notes to Cambodia

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I thought it would be a good idea to add some of my previous trip notes to the blog.

I will begin with Cambodia, which has definitely been my best trip so far.

For those of you who are not familiar with the area, Cambodia is a Southeast Asian country with a population of over 15 million. Between 1975 and 1979, the ruler of Cambodia, Pol Pot, committed genocide against his own people. Cambodia’s nominal GDP per head was barely over USD 1,000 in 2014.

It all started when my wife kept insisting that she wanted to go to Cambodia. I thought it would be a nice surprise to book the tickets without informing her, and I did.

As I was busy dealing with so much stuff, I hadn’t done any research and I did not have any idea that Siem Reap is the place to visit, so I booked return flights to Phnom Penh.

When I revealed my surprise, she did not seem very happy and said that she wanted to go to Siem Reap.

And this is where the story begins…

This “small” mistake of my mine made our trip to Cambodia unforgettable. We had only three full days in Cambodia and we were landing at Phnom Penh, so we had to be really fast and efficient.

I booked Le Meriden Siem Reap and arranged a car from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap. I had been told that it would be only 3.5 hours, but it took us six hours to reach our destination.

I have no problem with long car trips, but the problem was there was no asphalt as soon as we were out of the capital, Phnom Penh.

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The road was bumpy, dusty but, more importantly, really dangerous. There was no real distinction of separation of the lanes and everybody was just going their own way.

Our driver was a good driver and he seemed quite experienced on Cambodian roads, but I could not keep myself from looking at the road for more than a second. After a two hour drive, our driver kindly offered us a break to visit a local market.

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That was an experience! Tarantulas, cockroaches and different type of insects were being sold in the market.

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When we were back in the car, I asked if he ate cockroaches and he proudly said: “Yes, sir, with beer especially. Very good!”

After much overtaking and danger of accidents, we reached our hotel in Siem Reap. Le Meriden is a good hotel and it is located close to the Siem Reap National Park.

We had a good dinner at Cafe Abacus on our first night. Cafe Abacus is situated in a pleasant villa which is a combination of French and Khmer architecture with a nice garden. As Cambodia used to be a French colony, there are quite a number of French people living in the country and you can’t really avoid French food.

On our second day in Cambodia, our hotel kindly arranged a tour guide and car for us to visit the necessary places. For a reasonable fee, we had a good tour guide and a driver for the whole day.

Siem Reap is a magical city. The combination of temples with banyan trees and its history makes it a very attractive tourist destination. I will leave you to discover Siem Reap, and I believe each experience will be unique.

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As there are so many temples to visit, it is important to be quite selective if you have a time constraint. We visited the famous Angor Watt, Angor Thom and couple more temples on our second day in Cambodia.

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One dollar bills are life savers in Cambodia. You need them for everything, especially for tuk-tuks. You can exchange your larger denomination bills into one dollars in your hotel. Tuk-tuks are a must try and are very common in Asia.

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On our second night, we ate at the FCC restaurant. It is a restaurant inside the hotel with a nice view and good food. It used to be former French governor’s residence which is now converted into a hotel and restaurant.

On our last day, we arranged a car back to the capital very early in the morning. To be honest, I tried to avoid this trip by checking direct flights from Siem Reap to Singapore but they were fully booked so we had no choice to go back to the capital.

And I am glad that we did!

We visited Killing Fields, a prison under the Khmer Rouge regime and a Royal Palace.  It was a really very touching experience. When you think that the Khmer Rouge were in power 30 years ago, it is really scary what happened in Cambodia.

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One particular scene that I had saw during my visit to the Killing Fields I will never forget—a room full of skulls, and cracks in every single skull. Apparently, as bullets were expensive, Pol Pot had ordered that people be killed with hammers and some types of farming implement.

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On our way back to the airport, we were really stuck in the traffic. Our driver (the same driver who took us to Siem Reap) performed several magical movements and got us out of the jam.

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At the airport, I bought some books on Cambodian history to learn more about these lovely people and their sad recent history.

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Irony: A luxury car dealer in one of the most poor country…

If you haven’t visited Cambodia, you definitely should. I have visited 51 countries, and many countries more than once; but this short trip to Cambodia was my favourite.

All the best from Singapore.

Sukru Haskan
Twitter: @sukru_haskan

Economics, Europe, Politics

Education, Social Entrepreneurs and Condolences

When I woke up on Saturday morning (November 14th) in Singapore, I had so many notifications on my phone from BBC, CNN, Le Point, France 24, Strait Times, etc.

While I was trying to open up my eyes, I managed to read one of these notifications and I was shocked.

Unfortunately, all the notifications that morning were related to the attacks in Paris on Friday night.

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First I tried to think which of my friends were in Paris and then, thanks to the Facebook safety check-in option, I figured out who was in Paris and luckily they were all safe—but not the poor 129 people who were killed so cowardly that night.

After absorbing the initial shock, I, like many of you, I am sure, started thinking of what could lead these people to act like this.

Most people came up with the answer of radical beliefs, but the answer is much deeper than that.

From my experience, when people genuinely get richer, that does not turn them into intellectual human beings, but they have an option to buy some level of comfort. Over time, the ability to buy comfort gradually makes them open to further adaptation and modernization, if they are not already.

With the right education in place, they can even be leading intellectuals in their community, too.

So I think the key here is how we can get these people in the very low pillars of society to higher pillars.

Education is key here; but education costs a lot—and for people who cannot meet their basic needs such as security and food especially, education is something of a luxury.

The government may provide education services up to a certain level, but this will always be limited and the kid from the poor family will still lack if he is not supported.

Social philanthropists can play a crucial role here.

For instance, I had a chance this week to meet a social entrepreneur, Alexandre Mars, in Singapore. People like him are quite important, because it is impossible and naive to believe that the state will reach every corner of the world to find disadvantaged people. On top of that, ageing and a broken insurance system in the developed world makes it even harder for governments to bring about solutions.

Alexandre Mars is one of the top twenty philanthropists under 40 in New York. His foundation is called the Epic Foundation and it was initially funded by his personal funds. His foundation currently funds 20 new NGOs every single year to help youths in five different continents. You can find more information on Epic Foundation here.

But of course, we need more Alexandre Mars, and it is easier said than done.

Alexandre mentioned that it was his dream to help the youth and it took 15 years to create enough wealth to pursue his real dream.

Thomas Piketty, a reputable French economist and author of Capital in the Twenty-First Century, argues that the income inequality will continue to rise in the future as the return rate of capital is higher than the rate of economic growth. More importantly, he believes that the inequality level is now around the pre-war era.

I do not believe the utopic idea that everyone should be equal—on the contrary, I believe it is important that people are recognized for their achievement; but the redistribution of wealth is key to funding necessary education for the masses.

G20 in Antalya, Turkey, had been a good chance for leaders to discuss these issues. Since politicians are not entrepreneurs and they move much more slowly than entrepreneurs, I still believe entrepreneurs are the key to the solution.

The world is becoming a very polarized place to live and this is contrary to globalization and trade. We must eliminate illiteracy and poverty to secure a liveable world for ourselves and for our kids.

Expecting my first child next month, these events are very discouraging and lead me to wonder what kind of world we are really leaving for them. I sincerely worry about a world war within my life span.

By taking this opportunity, I would to like to offer my most sincere condolences to the families who lost their loved ones in the Paris, Beirut and Ankara attacks.

All the best from Singapore.

Sukru Haskan
Twitter: @sukru_haskan

Life, Personal Development

What is success to you?

When you are a fresh graduate from a university, you are young and ambitious.

You definitely want to be successful, but many of new graduates do not have an idea of what their passions are and this fact makes it harder for them to be successful.

In my own and plain explanation, success is an ability to achieve your dreams and it starts with setting your own objectives.

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An article published on Harvard Business Review by Boris Groysberg and Robin Abrahams explains it perfectly with a great example.

“A corporate lawyer may work for a highly respected firm and have a lavish compensation package, but if her career falls short of her dream to become a Supreme Court justice, for instance, or if practicing law seems merely a good way to make a living and doesn’t provide an intellectual buzz, she won’t feel successful.”

Success has different meanings to all of us. Success is a continuous journey which includes failure. Richard St. John from Canada explains success as a process of passion, work, focus, push, ideas, improve, serve and persist.

Many people defines success as a bank account with many zeros. Whilst it may be a conclusion of a success, it is not really a mean and it should not be.

From my own experience, people with an ultimate target to have a bank account with many zeros do fail. In other words, they become unsuccessful as passion is not in place in the first instance.

Remember Richard St. John’s ladder of success?

It does start with passion and money is not involved in any part of the process.

And these are the last words of Steve Jobs…

“I reached the pinnacle of success in the business world.
In others’ eyes, my life is an epitome of success.

However, aside from work, I have little joy. In the end, wealth is only a fact of life that I am accustomed to.

At this moment, lying on the sick bed and recalling my whole life, I realize that all the recognition and wealth that I took so much pride in, have paled and become meaningless in the face of impending death.

In the darkness, I look at the green lights from the life supporting machines and hear the humming mechanical sounds, I can feel the breath of god of death drawing closer…

Now I know, when we have accumulated sufficient wealth to last our lifetime, we should pursue other matters that are unrelated to wealth…
Should be something that is more important:

Perhaps relationships, perhaps art, perhaps a dream from younger days…
Non-stop pursuing of wealth will only turn a person into a twisted being, just like me.”

Who could argue that Steve Jobs was an unsuccessful person? I think he is successful and innovative but does it really matter what i think?

What matters most is what your self perception is…

My own humble explanation of success is to be a purposeful creature during our life span with adding value to many people’s lives.

Moreover, generating innovative ideas and helping to improve living standards of many cannot be more satisfactory than anything else.

All the best from Singapore.

Sukru Haskan
Twitter: @sukru_haskan

Life, Personal Development

Next Five Books to Read

My friends well know that I love to read and discuss what I read. Even though one may read on any subject, I am quite selective.

The reading rule that has stuck with me since I was a kid is that I don’t read any novels or science fiction. All I read is history, finance, economics, biography, self-development, psychology and philosophy.

This week, I would like to share with you the next five books waiting for me to read.

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1-A Short History of England by Simon Jenkins

I started reading this book almost a  month and a half ago and, since I have been busy reading some international affairs and financial papers, I have only read about the first 100 pages.

England is a great country with a long history and this book is a quick introduction to full English history from British tribes to the modern day. I always advocate that if you want to understand a set of people and a country, you have to master their history first.

It is a great book to enlighten you as to why modern England exists in its present form. The book is about 300 pages, and please don’t expect to get detailed information on each era.

Caution: You may get lost due to the speed of change of the kings, queens, barons and conflicts, but it’s worth a try!

2- Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind by Yuval Harari

This book has been recommended to me by two precious people. One of them is the Vice Chancellor of Bahcesehir University and my economics professor back in Turkey, Elif Cepni, and that’s why it jumped all the books in the queue to be read after A Short History of England.

It mainly talks about different human species that inhabited earth 100,000 years ago compared to only one today, homo sapiens. The book takes you through human history from A to Z and talks about why we have created kingdoms, countries and the current systems such as using money as a medium of payment. It also refers to how and why we have come to believe in gods.

Since everything has a reason and a history, I hope that this book will enlighten me as to why we are so cruel to each other and to the rest of the species in the world, as well.

3-A Line in the Sand: Britain, France and the Struggle for the Mastery of the Middle East by James Barr

The Middle East has been the land of politics for centuries and, unfortunately, the Middle East is known by many for its wars and conflicts. Actually, the Middle East has much more to offer such as its grand culture and history, rather than only its wars and natural resources.

Middle East history goes to back to many centuries ago, but this book focuses on the times of British and French rule in the region.

James Barr is an important modern author on the Middle East and I look forward to reading this book.

This book is also a recommendation from an honourable gentleman in my native land. He is currently in his 80s and I respect his intellectual knowledge very much.

4- Lost Enlightenment: Central Asia’s Golden Age from the Arab Conquest to Tamerlane by Frederick Starr

Central Asia brought wealth, trade and science to the rest of the world, especially between 800 and 1200. Nowadays, this is forgotten, but it is the reality.

The sophistication of its cities and people, along with achievements in different types of field such as medicine, astronomy and mathematics, have established today’s modern world. The people of Persian, Arab and Turkish descent were behind this achievement during the medieval enlightenment.

With the New Silk Road project in China, it is very likely that this notable role will be revitalized, but hard to say if it will again be that influential a region in the world arena.

I believe this book is a good reminder that change is inevitable and you need to keep updated to keep running for the lead.

5-2014: The Election that Changed India by Rajdeep Sardesai

I bought this book in India when I was traveling in Delhi in December 2014. Unfortunately, due to regular queue jumping by different books, it is still standing unread on my shelves.

India is becoming more and more important and 2015 marks the first year that India has surpassed China in terms of growth. There are a lot of expectations from Narendra Modi and his mandate is not easy to deliver in the world largest democracy. I expect to get more insights on India from this book.

Given that it is written by an Indian news anchor, it makes the book more compelling and sincere.

I would like to finish this week’s article with a good website recommendation to keep track of your online bookshelves. If you are still not aware of Goodreads.com, I strongly suggest that you have a look. Nowadays everything is going digital and it is a great platform to establish your reading list and book reviews online.

For bookworms, I also recommend a visit to Daunt Books on Marylebone High Street, London. It is a very different book store from the usual ones and you can get lost for many hours inside.

Having strongly advocated the digitization of everything, I shall admit that I still could not give away my paperback books. I have a Kindle and I have read many books on it, but it has never given me the same feeling as when touching paperback books.

All the best from Singapore.

Sukru Haskan
Twitter: @sukru_haskan

Asia, Economics, Europe, United Kingdom

New Silk Road: One Belt, One Road

Chinese President, Mr. Xi Jinping, made a four day official visit to the UK last week. This was the first visit since 2005 and the UK was definitely well prepared to ensure that the Chinese President left the UK with a good impression and, more importantly, that he left with many infrastructure and trade projects signed.

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As we all well know, China is becoming more powerful and China has a lot of ambitions. One of the most important is its ambition to revitalize the Silk Road under the One Belt, One Road project.

The Silk Road is an ancient route facilitating trade and cultural exchange from east to west. The Great Wall of China was built to protect this route—in a way, to protect the continuation of trade between the east and the west. The development of this route enabled China, Persia, India and many countries in the past to benefit from cultural and economic development.

The length of the route is 6,000 km. The name Silk Road comes from the famous Chinese silk, which was a major attraction in building this route. Nowadays, thanks to the development of technology and fast transportation options, this route can be utilized more efficiently.

Following the global financial crisis in 2008, we are still not out of the woods. More importantly, we are losing our patience and our hopes for the future. When under 25 unemployment hits 50% in some developed countries, that is not only telling us about a single problem. It is signalling a much bigger problem: a lost generation.

The New Silk Road is being worked on in such an environment, and it excites everyone as it did in the past. And obviously everybody wants to get their share.

In the EU, the UK is lagging behind Germany with its trade volume with China. Obviously, Germany sells its cars and manufactured goods whereas the UK is not very competitive, actually not producing many exportation goods at all.

However, the UK is the leading country in the service sector in the EU. That’s where the internationalization of RMB could play an important role, as London can be the main clearing centre for renminbi.

In addition, the UK is where ideas of the future are turning into reality. It is the country where you can freely discuss with intellectuals and implement your ideas. Most importantly, the UK has a global talent pool which may only be compared with the USA.

Of course, it is not only Germany and the UK that are competing for a share in this big cake. Japanese president, Mr. Abe, has been travelling in Central Asia this week to secure better relationships with Central Asian countries. Given that Central Asia is the main connecting point, it is the main artery for the New Silk Road, pumping blood into its heart.

In my opinion, this visit is too late for Japan. Chinese companies, with the support of the Chinese Exim Bank, have been working on this region for many years now.

The power shift has already begun. The UK decided to sign for the foundation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, where many hesitant countries followed the UK. This should be a warning bell for the US.

I think we have to give credit to Cameron’s chancellor, George Osborne, for this courageous move.

The UK media criticized David Cameron for not discussing in detail China’s human rights track record and its steel pricing policy. On top of that, it was unfortunate timing that the UK steel industry announced job cuts during the visit of the Chinese president to the UK.

I believe David Cameron is following the right strategy with China.

How would it be possible to cooperate with someone on social issues without establishing the right relationship?

History might be bloody between the UK and China, but the future definitely looks bright.

All the best from Singapore.

Sukru Haskan
Twitter: @sukru_haskan