Tag Archives: David Cameron

Brexit: Will it really happen?

Britain is going for another referendum on June 23rd to decide whether to accept the EU reforms or leave the EU. On the street, people are referring to the referendum as the Brexit and the real question is: Will it really happen?

brexit-800x500

I really don’t think so.

Since David Cameron declared that he would re-negotiate the relationship with the EU in 2013, I see the whole process as a well-rehearsed theatrical play. There are some good cops and bad cops in the play, but the agenda and the outcome are very well planned ahead.

The good cops are the ones who are very happy with the “special status” obtained from the EU after hard negotiations led by David Cameron.

This group is very happy, since concessions have been obtained and the UK is now a “privileged” member of the union. Of course, nothing should be shown as having been won easily at someone else’s expense, so there the bad cops kick in and the theatre starts.

The other group of people are still not really happy with the EU after the “special status” and they want the UK to leave the EU regardless.

Within this group, there are two distinct sub-groups: genuine politicians who really want the UK to leave the EU, since they are populist politicians, without calculating the damage to the UK; and the others, there to play the bad cop for the drama or for their own personal interest.

Currently half a dozen cabinet members are in favour of leaving the EU; however, most of the cabinet members want the UK to stay in Europe. Boris Johnson’s decision to campaign to leave the EU was an eye opener for the political arena as well as the financial markets.

Sterling dropped from 1.44 to 1.39 against the US dollar.

If the referendum result is to leave the EU in June, David Cameron will be a definite loser and, since Boris Johnson is the strongest candidate for the Tory leadership, the probability that he will win the most desired seat earlier becomes significantly higher.

It is good to remember that this is not the first time that the British public has voted to stay in or leave the EU, and the Conservatives have a good record of being split on important issues, going back to the late nineteenth century and, more recently, the 1990s, when its own MPs prepared the end of Thatcher’s eleven year premiership. In other words, they opened the door for 13 years of Labour leadership.

The UK is currently the world’s fifth biggest economy and it is the fifth largest spender on defence. The EU takes almost half of the UK’s exports and the UK takes less than ten per cent of the EU’s. A decision to leave the EU will definitely harm both sides and a Brexit will create a more dominant Germany in the EU, which I am not sure many of the member states will be happy to see.

Arguably, it may open the door for other members to re-negotiate their status with the alliance, and the models of Norway or Switzerland could be preferable for future members rather than joining the union.

One may discuss the capabilities of the UK in the current world, but nobody can ignore that Britain is still a top notch leader when it comes to politics.

Why would such a political genius open the door for another referendum for Scotland to leave the UK, financial companies to relocate their headquarters and a huge volume of transactions to move out of the UK, especially at a time when “special status” has already been granted from the EU, thanks to Prime Minister David Cameron?

It is simply another well acted piece of theatre.

All the best from Singapore.

Sukru Haskan
Twitter: @sukru_haskan

Share This:

UK: Prime Minister’s Questions

Prime Minister’s Questions is the weekly session where Prime Minister answers questions of the opposition leader and the other MP’s in the House of Common.

For those you that are not familiar with the UK parliamentary system, House of Commons is the parliament where members of the parliament meet each other.

David Cameron speaks during PMQs

Although prime ministers have answered questions in parliament for centuries, until the 1880s questions to the prime minister were treated the same as questions to other Ministers asked without notice.

In 1881 fixed time-limits for questions were introduced and questions to the prime minister were moved to the last slot of the day as a courtesy to the 72-year-old prime minister at the time, William Gladstone, so he could come to the Commons later in the day. In 1953, when Winston Churchill was prime minister, it was agreed that questions would be submitted on fixed days (Tuesdays and Thursdays.

It is the year of 1961 when the PMQs were made permanent. Since then there has been some tweaks in the format, and it continues in the current format.

I have been following the PMQ in the last four years and there are many funny moments that I laughed out loud.

I think it is a great way to understand British politics and it is also great way to flourish your language skills.

David Cameron is my real star when it comes to PMQ as his performance is always a stellar.

Some of my favourite conservations from PMQ:

#1 David Cameron: “…. which we wouldn’t have, if we would listen the muttering idiot sitting idiot opposite to me”
Speaker: “Prime Minister, please withdraw the word ‘Idiot” as it is unparliamentary…”

#2 David Cameron:  “I do feel now that a big part of my life is trying to give pleasure to Mrs… ” and then he continues “I feel on this occasion, I can only go so far.”

#3 David Cameron: “There is a complete mug …..” to Ed Miliband.

#4 David Cameron: “The gentleman sitting right opposite, enjoys the game, Bingo as it is only time that he’s got close to Number 10”

5# David Cameron: “…. You do not need to be knowing it’s Christmas, when you sitting next to a turkey.”

#6 David Cameron: ” In 43 days time, I am plan to arrange his retirement plan…”

Speaker : “Orderrrr, Orderrrr…”

I do not want to imagine what could happen if these conversations with the noise in the background, would take place in some other countries.

That’s the beauty of advanced democracy in a develop country. I strongly advise you watch PMQs if you haven’t been familiar yet.

All the best from Istanbul before heading back to Singapore,

Sukru Haskan
Twitter: @sukru_haskan

Share This: