Brexit: Will it really happen?

Britain is going for another referendum on June 23rd to decide whether to accept the EU reforms or leave the EU. On the street, people are referring to the referendum as the Brexit and the real question is: Will it really happen?

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I really don’t think so.

Since David Cameron declared that he would re-negotiate the relationship with the EU in 2013, I see the whole process as a well-rehearsed theatrical play. There are some good cops and bad cops in the play, but the agenda and the outcome are very well planned ahead.

The good cops are the ones who are very happy with the “special status” obtained from the EU after hard negotiations led by David Cameron.

This group is very happy, since concessions have been obtained and the UK is now a “privileged” member of the union. Of course, nothing should be shown as having been won easily at someone else’s expense, so there the bad cops kick in and the theatre starts.

The other group of people are still not really happy with the EU after the “special status” and they want the UK to leave the EU regardless.

Within this group, there are two distinct sub-groups: genuine politicians who really want the UK to leave the EU, since they are populist politicians, without calculating the damage to the UK; and the others, there to play the bad cop for the drama or for their own personal interest.

Currently half a dozen cabinet members are in favour of leaving the EU; however, most of the cabinet members want the UK to stay in Europe. Boris Johnson’s decision to campaign to leave the EU was an eye opener for the political arena as well as the financial markets.

Sterling dropped from 1.44 to 1.39 against the US dollar.

If the referendum result is to leave the EU in June, David Cameron will be a definite loser and, since Boris Johnson is the strongest candidate for the Tory leadership, the probability that he will win the most desired seat earlier becomes significantly higher.

It is good to remember that this is not the first time that the British public has voted to stay in or leave the EU, and the Conservatives have a good record of being split on important issues, going back to the late nineteenth century and, more recently, the 1990s, when its own MPs prepared the end of Thatcher’s eleven year premiership. In other words, they opened the door for 13 years of Labour leadership.

The UK is currently the world’s fifth biggest economy and it is the fifth largest spender on defence. The EU takes almost half of the UK’s exports and the UK takes less than ten per cent of the EU’s. A decision to leave the EU will definitely harm both sides and a Brexit will create a more dominant Germany in the EU, which I am not sure many of the member states will be happy to see.

Arguably, it may open the door for other members to re-negotiate their status with the alliance, and the models of Norway or Switzerland could be preferable for future members rather than joining the union.

One may discuss the capabilities of the UK in the current world, but nobody can ignore that Britain is still a top notch leader when it comes to politics.

Why would such a political genius open the door for another referendum for Scotland to leave the UK, financial companies to relocate their headquarters and a huge volume of transactions to move out of the UK, especially at a time when “special status” has already been granted from the EU, thanks to Prime Minister David Cameron?

It is simply another well acted piece of theatre.

All the best from Singapore.

Sukru Haskan
Twitter: @sukru_haskan

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20 thoughts on “Brexit: Will it really happen?”

  1. Strange why you are so interested in OUR country. Two faced Cameron has not won a thing from the corrupt EU. It is possible to do anything with figures, your comments about the EU taking around half of our exports ( around 40% actually ) but we take less than 10% of the EU’s ….. That is 10% of around 440 million possible customers/exports. This will not change if we are in or out. We will be able to trade with lots more countries that will not be restricted by high tariffs.

  2. I sincerely hope we leave the EU. It is undemocratic and the UK is losing powers year on year. At least we can vote out our Government every five years if we aren’t happy how they are performing.

    1. I do tend to agree with this, as I feel this government is very devious and will use every underhanded trick to deceive us into believing they have negotiated a deal that gives us everything we want. I, also, am very pro exit as we are losing everything that we have by greedy politicians who seem to want to continue with their noses in the eu trough. We NEED to control our own borders, and supporting proof of this has been seen recently as many European member countries have unilaterly decided to close their own borders, which totally goes against the Brussels dictat, which shows that the eu is in total meltdown, so why in the name if heaven would we want to stay in??

  3. I got as far as ” genuine politicians who really want the UK to leave the EU, since they are populist politicians, without calculating the damage to the UK” and blew you out.

    You’ll have to be a lot better at veiling your intentions if you’re going to fool anyone.

  4. It is very we rehearsed the deal is done we won’t leave they won’t let us but they have to act it out like a Shakespeare play. The thing is this is real life and through the centuries our four fathers have died for what we are allowing our so called leaders to give away

  5. A couple of points here, firstly our balance of trade with the EU is about £60 bn in the red, our market share from the EU is dropping, admittedly not much but enough to be noticeable. France, among others have given poor financial forecasts for this year,. At some point Germany especially will realise the financial cost of Merkel’s open door policy which kicked off much of the migration we see now is un-affordable and will require bailing out, almost probably mostly by the countries taking the fewest of these migrants, ie us. The ‘special deal’ agreed between Cameron and the EU still requires ratifying, as this won’t happen until after the referendum it will almost certainly be blocked by those countries that have the most to lose, even then a request will need to be presented for any of these ‘brakes’ to be applied, it will only take a few countries to block this. What has Cameron promised to give up in getting this ‘deal’? I believe our rebate will go, our financial contributions will increase, especially as the UK generally is doing quite well at the moment while much of Europe, (the EU), is struggling. One of the ‘Remain’ arguments for staying in is that one in ten jobs rely on the EU, that means, (obviously), that nine other jobs in the UK don’t rely on the EU! If anyone believes the status quo will remain if we remain in is sadly deluded. Finally does the EU offer the UK value for money? I believe overall no and, unless the Government do more than try to scare us that view will remain.

  6. There is an incorrect statement here. Britain has not had a vote on the EU before. In 1975 after firms all over Britain had spent a small fortune on changing to decimalisation the people of Britain were asked if wanted to scrap all that and leave the Common Market. The Common Market was a simple trading agreement it didn’t entail any laws being made from Brussels or Britain being required to pay eventually over a trillion pounds now into this new invention called the EU. That is why Britain has cutbacks everywhere and our NHS is now on it’s knees and that’s why Britain must leave the EU not because a handful of overpaid bankers and traders may lose a few Bob.

  7. I have been in the finance market some years and the restrictions / eu directives have caused mayhem we need to be in control of our own financies not let countries outside the uk dictate

  8. May I correct an inaccuracy: It is the first time that the UK will have voted on whether or not to remain part of the EU, which only came into being in the early 1990s. The previous referendum concerned membership of the EEC, a trading bloc quite unlike the EU, although it did eventually morph into the EU.
    The EU is already weakening under its own complexity and the new members in waiting are likely to put further strain on an already fragile structure. It is only a matter of time before economic disparity will result in political fragmentation and total collapse.
    Britain is better off out now rather than waiting to be buried in the rubble.

  9. I concur with Jason Haxton. I also believe Sukru that you are misreading the mood of the people in Britain. You may be surprised at the outcome!

  10. Think he’s misreading the views of people in “England”. The smaller UK countries are worried about unfettered Tory governments we haven’t voted for in half a century no longer being restrained by EU legislation.

  11. Who would actually vote to join the EU if we weren’t already a member?
    They haven’t had audited accounts signed off in over twenty years.
    What other business or organisation would be permitted this state of affairs?

  12. Cameron is just a puppet to the EU and whether or not he had hard nMegotiations with them he came back with nothing and probably went with nothing. He wants us to stay in the EU because he has a job waiting for him just like Kinnock and Blair to name a few. They all should be ashamed of themselves but money and power mean more to them than their own country and all the people who died fighting for our freedom. Hopefully they will all be jobless when we leave the monster of the EU and we will have the last laugh.

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